This article is not about politics.  The news is that Donald Trump appears to be coming out on top in the “weaponization of the judiciary” against him.  Here is the play-by-play as of 1 April 2024.  And this is not some April Fools jest – it is really the trending.

Seven court cases constituted a minefield in the logic that if one case didn’t get him, another would.  They are listed here in ascending order of risk, from those that have been largely de-fanged to the ones that still could trip up his presidential ambitions.

First, his removal from the ballot in some states for alleged insurrection.  Led by the state of Colorado.  America’s supreme court (SCOTUS) recently ruled that he is eligible to run in all states.  Finish and clear.

This coincides with him rising to the status of presumptive candidate for the Republican party in the “primaries”.  All the lawfare has not slowed him down.  In fact, it seems to have boosted his appeal to voters.

Second is a case in the state of Florida alleging that he mishandled top secret documents.  This case has run into issues.  The original date in May 2024 was called off.   Judge Cannon may now delay the trial date until after election, based on procedural errors made by the prosecution that have recently come to light.  This only seems fair in the light of Biden being exonerated for the same behavior – mishandling classified documents.

Case by case, Trump’s defense has managed to deflate the prosecutions.  Or to delay decisions or trials beyond the date of presidential elections.  Meanwhile he is running a campaign that leads some pundits to predict victory. 

The risks that this case could trip Trump’s march back to the White House is fading fast.

Third is a case brought against Trump and co-defendants in the state of Georgia – for alleged election interference.  It turns out that the prosecutor had a Smallanyana skeleton in her closet.  She had an affair with the attorney she hired to prosecute Trump – at higher than market rates.

Fani Willis had requested a 5 August 2024 trial date, but was forced to dismiss her prosecutor (and ex-lover Wade).  She is still under a cloud of criticism for her lack of integrity, and may be removed by ethics ombudsmen, although she seems unwilling to remove herself.  But one gets the impression that this initiative is losing steam.

Fourth, Trump has been accused of civil fraud in New York state.  Although there is no victim.  The trial was concluded in January 2024 and the punishment meted out thereafter by Judge Engeron was grossly severe.  Trump managed to have the required bond reduced by two-thirds, and has now posted a bond.  That allows him to launch an appeal in the SCOTUS.  Win or lose, that will push the trial date past the November elections.

Fifth, Trump faces charges of insurrection in Washington DC.  Many Americans believe there was a set-up, a kind of entrapment.  His enemies were trying to prevent a comeback.  Quite a few January 6 protesters have already been convicted and are serving time.

This case has been stayed pending a SCOTUS case on presidential immunity - to be heard on 25 April 2024.  So the actual trial date in DC is still up in the air and the trial verdict could conceivably land after the date of elections.

There is rising suspicion that the original investigation of January 6 was corrupt.  Just before the Republicans took over the House after the mid-terms in 2022, this committee unlawfully destroyed its records.  A new committee is now investigating the case in a different light, and the suspicious behavior of the previous committee as well. 

A related decision on 1 March 2024 has up-ended the sentencing of up to 100 protesters already convicted, by making the distinction that the protest did not exactly interfere with the “administration of justice” - because Congress is in the legislative branch, not the judiciary.  This was the tipping point.  A fifth initiative started to lose its momentum.

Sixth is a defamation case brought against Trump in New York state.  Although he was never convicted of rape, E Jean Carroll sued him for libel for the way he publicly characterized her as a gold-digger in that previous litigation.  She won, but Trump has already posted a bond and launched his appeal.  This can delay the trial.

Public opinion is mixed on whether any conviction will help or hinder his prospects of winning the next presidential election.  But the efforts of his colleagues in the House to stem the “weaponization” of state entities should reap a big reward for his Republican party.

So we are down to the seventh and last case, also in New York state.  This one is still risky for Trump.  It is immanent.  Jury selection begins on April 15th, the trial will go ahead according to Judge Merchant.  Did the payment of “hush money” to Stormy Daniel subvert tax rules?  Was there tax evasion?  Some people think that Manhattan’s District Attorney Allan Bragg has political ambitions – so he wants to be the giant slayer.

The tipping point has been mentioned above.  Case by case, Trump’s defense has managed to deflate the prosecutions.  Or to delay decisions or trials beyond the date of presidential elections.  Meanwhile he is running a campaign that leads some pundits to predict victory.  The second coming of Donald Trump.

Here are some conclusions from this review of his lawfare portfolio…

Trump is still standing although not out of the lawfare gauntlet yet.  He has not yet won, but he is winning.

He is now the presumptive candidate for the Republican party, and doing well at the polls.  If anything, all these litigations seem to be helping him not hindering him.  They are widely seen as election interference.  Several judges have imposed gag orders on him, trying to reduce the political fall-out. 

He may be on trial during the actual election campaign, but not for all seven cases.  Because he has won the right to stand for election in all states.  Some cases are falling apart while others can be punted until after the elections.  Trial dates overlapping with the election campaign are thinning out.  So he is successfully mitigating the risks.

Oddly enough, these cases are keeping him in the public eye, on the front pages of the media, which helps his “branding”.

Public opinion is mixed on whether any conviction will help or hinder his prospects of winning the next presidential election.  But the efforts of his colleagues in the House to stem the “weaponization” of state entities should reap a big reward for his Republican party.

People always tend to have a soft spot for the underdog.  Will that translate into votes?

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